The war between two of the world’s largest grain exporters has raised fears about global shortages, but how valid are these concerns?
By Kyran Berlin & Greg Kennedy
Russian tanks lug stolen and vandalized tractors through city streets. Golden fields littered with shrapnel from shellings, and close to a quarter of farmlands have been abandoned altogether.
The country that was until recently considered the ‘Breadbasket of the World’ is under siege, leaving thousands of Ukranians food insecure and global policymakers scrambling to dodge a wave of shortages on the world food market.
According to the UN World Food Programme, together Ukraine and Russia produce roughly 40% of the globe’s grain supply, primarily in the form of livestock feed, cereals and protein crops. Additionally, sanctions and bans structured after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have also meant the loss of Russian oil, fertilizers, sugar and grains, which Europe is largely dependent on.
Statistics provided by the European Parliament show that in 2021, Russia was the third-largest partner for EU imports of goods (7.5%), and the fifth largest partner in EU exports (4.1%).
In April, the European Commission issued a statement that Europe is largely self-sufficient in its food production and thus Europeans should not expect food scarcity caused by the war, but rather climbing prices in sugar, cooking oil and animal products as the war and sanctions press on.
Unlike most of Europe, the brunt of these shortages will be felt in poorer countries around the world – particularly those already affected by hunger.
“Having a country that used to feed the world, that used to be the Breadbasket of the World, now depending on food systems in less than two months is quite absurd.”
– Anne poulsen
Anne Poulsen, Director of the WFP’s Nordic Branch, warned that the shock to the global supply chain caused by the conflict will be a ‘matter of life and death’ for thousands living in areas such as Sudan, Yemen and Afghanistan.
“When you in the first place are struggling to put food on the table for people or for your family, for your children, a 1% increase or 2% increase in prices can really be the difference between whether you can put the next meal on the table or not,” Poulsen explained.
Additionally, 115.4 million people receive food assistance from organizations like WFP every year, many in the form of food rations designed around available crops. According to Poulsen, about 50% of the WFP’s grains for rations are sourced from Ukraine, meaning the expected decline of their exports will require a reshaping of food assistance around the globe.
Now, the WFP has set up food and cash distribution centers for food insecure Ukranians limited to Russian-occupied areas of the state, and in conflict areas like Mariupol and Kyiv.
“Having a country that used to feed the world, that used to be the Breadbasket of the World, now depending on food systems in less than two months is quite absurd.” Poulsen said.
To mitigate global hunger, the EU has pledged at least €2.5 billion for development and humanitarian aid to strengthen food systems in 70 food insecure partner countries between now and 2024. Another €330 million will come from a EU Emergency Support Programme to Ukraine to help meet basic needs and protection.
In early April, the European Commission announced plans to allow tilling of new farmlands across Europe as a ‘temporary’ measure to avoid price inflation caused by the conflict. This would allow for increased production of feed grains, sugar and oilseeds within member states following what is shaping to be a ‘surplus’ harvest in 2022, according to the EC.
A handful of member states, such as France, have been pushing for Europe’s agricultural independence from soybean and protein crop imports from Russia and the Americas prior to the February 24 invasion of Ukraine as part of a broader agenda for EU sovereignty in trade and defence.
However, the push for food independence in the EU is not without its consequences to the environment. Environmental advocates have been critical of the EU’s procurement of new fallow land, as farming virgin land strips ecosystems of biodiversity and requires additional logistical support for foreign crops to grow outside of their natural conditions.
It’s also a costly move to the existing Green Deal, as the temporary fix pushes Europe away from its Fit for 55 goals for more sustainable farming systems.
“At the EU-level, there is a consensus about the need to address these issues through different means,” said Asger Christensen, MEP and member of the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development. “We must find the right balance between biodiversity and climate protection, while still being able to fill up the plates.”
Adding to the pressure on Europe’s agricultural industry is the two-thirds cutoff from Russian natural gas, which accounts for 41% of the EU’s gas imports and is essential to production of fertilizers, pesticides, and is used in operating farming equipment. In 2021, Europe bought $2.11 billion USD worth of Russian fertilizers according to data from United Nations COMTRADE.
“As of now, the EU is quite dependent on stable imports of both feedstock and fertilizers from Russia and Ukraine (and third countries in general). Therefore, every policy must consider this.” Christensen said.
As an alternative plan to farming more of Europe, some see the cutoff as an opportunity to advance sustainable agricultural systems and become less dependent on Russia’s chemical additives.
Frans Timmermans, Executive Vice-President for the European Green Deal, warned fellow EU members against inciting panic over supply shortages in Europe and advocated for greener alternatives and continued transition toward sustainable farming systems in lieu of compensating for Russian exports.
The EU’s derailing from sustainable farming systems still threatens to harm the global food supply in the long run, said Professor Piet Van der Meer, who runs a multidisciplinary program on creating sustainable, resilient and adaptable global food systems at Vrije Universiteit Brussel.
According to Van der Meer, Europe’s farming practices are unsustainable as they are, as adapting land, overusing chemicals and water to house non-native crops takes a toll on the land in use and its surrounding ecosystems.
“If we keep on changing the environment, adding stuff to the environment, changing it in order to add [foreign] crops from the one point we run into the limits.” Van der Meer said.
Instead, Van der Meer advocates for maximizing efficiency in local food systems by growing local crops engineered to be more resilient, as opposed to adapting with increased water, pesticide, and environmental augmentation.
“There is a ton of research being done by public research institutions to make local crops more resilient… more nutritious… We need to make sure that we can make the tools available that the local communities can produce more and then preferably be their own crops.” Van der Meer said.
Miriam Garcia Ferrer, EC spokesperson for Trade and Agriculture, echoed the need for more sustainable food systems as a long-run solution to strengthen global food systems.
“We need to reduce globally the dependency on fossil fuels and continue pushing and action for a transition of the global food systems toward more sustainability,” Ferrer stated. “The Farm to Fork Strategy and the Biodiversity strategy will be key in the EU as well as the green partnerships and coalitions the EU is developing with third countries.”
From the other side, farmers and agricultural organizations are also pressuring the EU for increased support as the prices of oil, livestock feed, and other essentials climb, in addition to securing new farmland.
Copa-Cogeca, an umbrella organization of agricultural cooperatives in the EU, issued a press statement in support of the EC temporary farming strategy to avoid “a hurricane of famine” around the globe caused by the loss of Ukrainian and Russian exports. In the statement, Copa-Cogeca criticized Green Deal proponents, alleging Timmermans’ statements minimized the severity of the situation.
“If we keep on changing the environment, adding stuff to the environment, changing it in order to add [foreign] crops from the one point we run into the limits.”
– PROF. PIET VAN DER MEER
“Copa-Cogeca does not oppose agriculture and environment, farmers will know how to produce better and sustainably. Food chains will break down in the most dependent countries worldwide, and Europe cannot be selfish and inward-looking in this context.” Quoted the statement published 30 March.
In addition to the new farmlands, a joint statement from Copa-Cogeca and other agri-cooperatives asked for continued support from the EU in the form of affordable energy for farmers, maintaining single market integrity to keep trade flowing, and avoiding sensationalism that can lead to panic-buying and stockpiling by EU consumers.
In the meantime, global aid foundations like the WFP are seeking increased donations to adapt and continue issuing food aid around the globe.
“Right here right now, the strong appeal is the desperate appeal is ready for additional funding so we can continue to save lives.” Poulsen said.